Which countries are stable, and which are cracking
40 countries that matter for markets — the big economies, the energy producers, the geopolitical flashpoints. Each one is scored across four dimensions that historically precede crises: political stability, economic stress, governance quality, and news-cycle tone.
Countries tracked
40
Data year: 2025
Median risk
38/100
World below long-term average
High-risk countries
4
Overall score ≥ 60
Trending worse
5
vs 2024
Active conflicts (last 90 days)
Source: ACLED + UCDP GED
Countries with the most real-world violence recorded in the last 90 days. Fatalities aggregated across all event types (battles, explosions, civilian targeting).
Ukraine
5,862 fatalities · 402 events
Nigeria
1,292 fatalities · 211 events
Pakistan
868 fatalities · 229 events
SDN
444 fatalities · 62 events
ETH
398 fatalities · 87 events
COL
342 fatalities · 267 events
Mexico
270 fatalities · 220 events
SOM
219 fatalities · 49 events
BFA
206 fatalities · 65 events
Israel
154 fatalities · 88 events
MLI
133 fatalities · 106 events
SSD
109 fatalities · 2 events
NER
92 fatalities · 15 events
Syria
83 fatalities · 69 events
HTI
76 fatalities · 6 events
✓ What this means for your portfolioLive conflict = persistent oil supply risk (keep a small energy long), flight-to-quality into gold on escalation days (hold or add gold dips), and headline-driven volatility on crypto (don't short rallies on escalation news — wait 24h).
Structural Constraints Index
Data year: 2025 · Stratfor-style framework
Five structural axes that constrain what a country can do — regardless of who governs it. Higher score = more constrained = more fragile. Based on 21 World Bank indicators + V-Dem + WGI + geographic features.
Upgrade to STANDARD+ to see the 5-dimension breakdown (Demographic / Resource / Economic / Geographic / Institutional).
Political Instability Outlook — 24 Months
PITF methodology · Brier score: 0.05
Probability of political instability onset within 24 months, based on the Political Instability Task Force model (Goldstone et al. 2010, AJPS). Uses regime type, governance indicators, and GDELT media tone as inputs.
#
Country
Risk Level
1
SSD
MODERATE
2
Nigeria
MODERATE
3
NER
MODERATE
4
SOM
MODERATE
5
LBR
MODERATE
6
ZWE
MODERATE
7
GIN
MODERATE
8
CAF
MODERATE
9
COD
MODERATE
10
TCD
MODERATE
11
LSO
MODERATE
12
SLE
MODERATE
13
Afghanistan
MODERATE
14
Pakistan
MODERATE
15
GNQ
MODERATE
Upgrade to STANDARD+ to see probability percentages and key factors.
Methodology: Logistic regression on regime type (V-Dem), governance indicators (WGI), and media tone (GDELT). Calibrated on 1955-2018 historical data. Walk-forward validated Brier score = 0.05 (lower = better). This is a statistical estimate, not a prediction of specific events.
How these scores are built
Each country gets four sub-scores on a 0-100 scale (higher = riskier):
Political — World Bank Political Stability index + V-Dem regime type.
Governance — World Bank governance indicators (effectiveness, rule of law, corruption).
News tone — GDELT global news-media tone average + volatility.
Overall risk = 30% political + 25% economic + 25% governance + 20% news tone. Data is annual, latest available year; trend compares the latest year to the prior year. Sources: World Bank (WGI, WDI), V-Dem Institute, GDELT 2.0. Updated monthly.
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Unlock the breakdown. STANDARD+ adds the 4-dimension risk view (political / economic / governance / news tone) on every country, so you can see why a score moves, not just that it moves.
This page shows slow risk — where cracks are forming. The 90-day forecast shows fast risk — the scheduled events that convert that stress into market moves.