Structural — 6-12 Months

Bitcoin should push toward $95,000-$115,000 over the next six to twelve months, with Ethereum tagging along toward $3,400. The structural driver isn't a single headline — it's the slow institutionalization of the asset class: Robinhood rolling out perpetual futures and weekend trading, tokenized Korean equities via Ondo, and stablecoin rails expanding into Japanese retail payments all point to crypto quietly becoming plumbing rather than a casino.... Read more

Valid until 4 Jan UTC

Gold and silver look set to grind sideways-to-lower over the next six to twelve months, with gold likely easing toward $3,900-$4,100 and silver chopping in a wide $48-$68 band. The core problem is the cost of holding metal: the 10-year Treasury yield (the return on holding US government debt) has pushed to 5.... Read more

Valid until 4 Jan UTC

Oil should grind higher over the next six to twelve months, with Brent likely pushing toward $105-$115 as the world's spare production capacity stays unusually thin. The market is caught between two forces: roughly a fifth of global liquefied natural gas still stuck behind the Strait of Hormuz (the narrow waterway Iran is threatening to close), and a coordinated release of emergency barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve that is now nearly exhausted.... Read more

Valid until 4 Jan UTC

Coffee should stay expensive while wheat and corn drift sideways to lower over the next six to twelve months. Coffee's rally is a supply story, not a demand story: repeated drought and heat in Brazil and Vietnam have thinned the global crop, and replanted trees take years to bear fruit, so there is no quick fix.... Read more

Valid until 4 Jan UTC

Water-focused investments should rise roughly 8-15% over the next six to twelve months as data centers and farms compete for a shrinking supply. The trigger is not weather but policy: California and the EU are now drafting rules to track and cap the water and power that AI hyperscalers consume, and those rules turn water from a free input into a metered, priced one.... Read more

Valid until 4 Jan UTC

Stocks look set to drift lower over the next six to twelve months, with the S&P 500 likely shedding mid-single digits from today's 7,652 as borrowing costs stay high. The 10-year Treasury yield at 5.... Read more

Valid until 4 Jan UTC

Over the next six to twelve months, the world looks likely to stay tense but not explode — a grinding, headline-driven standoff rather than a new hot war. The loudest signal in the data is actually weather, not armies: a cluster of flood warnings across the US Midwest, which is a reminder that the biggest near-term shocks to food and fuel supply are often climate, not conflict.... Read more

Valid until 4 Jan UTC

The world's water, power and food systems are being squeezed at the same time, and the pressure is structural rather than temporary. AI data centres are the new demand shock: California and the EU are already moving to cap their water and electricity use, with projections that AI will consume water equal to 1.... Read more

Valid until 4 Jan UTC

The world economy is drifting into a slow-growth, sticky-price trap rather than a clean recession or a clean recovery. The Iran conflict has trapped roughly a fifth of global LNG behind the Strait of Hormuz, and that energy shock is feeding straight into household bills and industrial costs — the ECB has already hiked twice in response.... Read more

Valid until 4 Jan UTC

The next six to twelve months bring no single geopolitical rupture, but a steady erosion of the alliances and institutions that have kept global risk premiums low for decades. The analyst view above captures it well: the US is deflating its own power by straining partnerships and hollowing out the economic foundations that underpin the dollar system.... Read more

Valid until 4 Jan UTC