Geopolitical Forecast

Geopolitical Risk

Political stability, regime type, conflict proximity, sanctions exposure, and news sentiment scored across 250 countries to flag rising geopolitical risk.

Countries scored

214

Data year: 2025

Median risk

5.0/10

Above global average

High risk

Score ≥ 6.0

Critical

Score ≥ 7.5

Deteriorating

Rising vs last year

Regime Stability Conflict Proximity Social Pressure Governance Deficit

Geopolitical Powers

Nations that shape the global order — permanent UNSC members, nuclear states, and regional hegemons whose foreign policy decisions ripple worldwide.

Geopolitical Powers
#	Country	Score	Level	Trend
1	Iran	8.3/10	critical	→
2	China	6.6/10	high	→
3	Russia	6.6/10	high	→
4	Turkey	6.6/10	high	→
5	Israel	6.1/10	high	→
6	India	5.7/10	elevated	→
7	Brazil	4.9/10	elevated	→
8	United States	4.2/10	moderate	↑
9	France	3.0/10	moderate	→
10	United Kingdom	2.9/10	moderate	→
11	Germany	2.4/10	low	↓
12	Japan	2.1/10	low	→

Sort by:

Geopolitical risk by country
#	Country	Score	Level	Trend	Top Driver
1	Yemen	9.0/10	critical	→	Social Pressure: 9.3/10
2	Sudan	8.8/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 9.0/10
3	Somalia	8.6/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 9.0/10
4	Iran	8.3/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 9.3/10
5	Syria	8.3/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
6	Afghanistan	8.2/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
7	South Sudan	8.2/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 9.1/10
8	Myanmar	8.1/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
9	Mali	8.0/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
10	Chad	8.0/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 8.4/10
11	DR Congo	7.8/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10
12	Palestine	7.8/10	critical	→	Social Pressure: 8.5/10
13	Burkina Faso	7.7/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 9.0/10
14	Ethiopia	7.7/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 9.2/10
15	Libya	7.7/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.6/10
16	Pakistan	7.7/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 9.1/10
17	Niger	7.6/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.5/10
18	Haiti	7.5/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 8.5/10
19	Lebanon	7.5/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.4/10
20	Venezuela	7.5/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 9.0/10
21	Eritrea	7.4/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 9.0/10
22	Iraq	7.4/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.0/10
23	Central African Republic	7.3/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.4/10
24	Guinea	7.3/10	high	→	Regime Stability: 8.1/10
25	Bangladesh	7.2/10	high	→	Regime Stability: 8.4/10
26	Cameroon	7.2/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.1/10
27	Republic of the Congo	7.2/10	high	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10
28	North Korea	7.2/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.8/10
29	Eswatini	7.2/10	high	→	Regime Stability: 8.1/10
30	Burundi	7.1/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.4/10

Upgrade to STANDARD+ to see the sub-dimension breakdown per country.

See the full picture

This is one of five risk dimensions. Visit the Risk Dashboard to see all five dimensions together, or check the Country Risk Radar for individual country deep-dives.

View Plans