Geopolitical Forecast

Geopolitical Risk

Political stability, regime type, conflict proximity, sanctions exposure, and news sentiment scored across 250 countries to flag rising geopolitical risk.

Countries scored

214

Data year: 2025

Median risk

5.0/10

Above global average

High risk

Score ≥ 6.0

Critical

Score ≥ 7.5

Deteriorating

Rising vs last year

Regime Stability Conflict Proximity Social Pressure Governance Deficit

Geopolitical Powers

Nations that shape the global order — permanent UNSC members, nuclear states, and regional hegemons whose foreign policy decisions ripple worldwide.

Geopolitical Powers
#	Country	Score	Level	Trend
1	Iran	8.4/10	critical	→
2	China	6.6/10	high	→
3	Russia	6.6/10	high	→
4	Turkey	6.6/10	high	→
5	Israel	6.1/10	high	→
6	India	5.7/10	elevated	→
7	Brazil	4.8/10	elevated	→
8	United States	4.4/10	moderate	↑
9	France	3.7/10	moderate	→
10	Germany	3.2/10	moderate	→
11	United Kingdom	2.9/10	moderate	→
12	Japan	2.1/10	low	→

Upcoming Events

Scheduled events in this category with AI-generated scenario analysis.

5 Nov 2026 UTC · in 18dOPEC+ Ministerial Meeting

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Geopolitical risk by country
#	Country	Score	Level	Trend	Top Driver
1	Yemen	9.0/10	critical	→	Social Pressure: 9.3/10
2	Sudan	8.9/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 9.1/10
3	Somalia	8.7/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 8.9/10
4	Iran	8.4/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 9.3/10
5	Syria	8.4/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
6	South Sudan	8.3/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 9.1/10
7	Afghanistan	8.2/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
8	Myanmar	8.1/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
9	Mali	7.9/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
10	Chad	7.9/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 8.3/10
11	Burkina Faso	7.8/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 9.3/10
12	Ethiopia	7.7/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 9.4/10
13	Haiti	7.7/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 8.4/10
14	Libya	7.7/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.6/10
15	Niger	7.7/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.5/10
16	Pakistan	7.7/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 9.2/10
17	Palestine	7.7/10	critical	→	Social Pressure: 8.5/10
18	DR Congo	7.5/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 8.4/10
19	Lebanon	7.5/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.4/10
20	Eritrea	7.4/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 9.0/10
21	Guinea-Bissau	7.4/10	high	↑	Governance Deficit: 8.1/10
22	Venezuela	7.4/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.9/10
23	Central African Republic	7.3/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.4/10
24	Cameroon	7.3/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.0/10
25	Iraq	7.3/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 7.9/10
26	Republic of the Congo	7.2/10	high	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10
27	Guinea	7.2/10	high	→	Regime Stability: 8.0/10
28	North Korea	7.2/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.8/10
29	Eswatini	7.2/10	high	→	Regime Stability: 8.0/10
30	Burundi	7.1/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.5/10

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This is one of five risk dimensions. Visit the Risk Dashboard to see all five dimensions together, or check the Country Risk Radar for individual country deep-dives.

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