Military Forecast

Military Risk

Active conflict fatalities, regional contagion from neighbors, and strategic geographic vulnerability scored to gauge military escalation and war risk.

Countries scored

212

Data year: 2025

Median risk

5.1/10

Above global average

High risk

Score ≥ 6.0

Critical

Score ≥ 7.5

Deteriorating

Rising vs last year

Active Conflict Arms Buildup Regional Contagion Strategic Vulnerability

Nuclear & Strategic Military Powers

The 9 nuclear-armed states plus key force-projecting nations — countries whose military posture shapes global security.

Nuclear & Strategic Military Powers
#	Country	Score	Level	Trend
1	Israel	7.9/10	critical	→
2	Pakistan	7.5/10	critical	→
3	Russia	7.1/10	high	→
4	North Korea	7.0/10	high	↑
5	Turkey	6.5/10	high	→
6	India	5.6/10	elevated	→
7	United States	5.2/10	elevated	→
8	China	5.0/10	elevated	→
9	France	4.3/10	moderate	→
10	South Korea	4.1/10	moderate	→
11	United Kingdom	4.0/10	moderate	→
12	Japan	3.4/10	moderate	→

Sort by:

Military risk by country
#	Country	Score	Level	Trend	Top Driver
1	Sudan	8.9/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 9.1/10
2	Yemen	8.9/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 9.3/10
3	Syria	8.7/10	critical	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.0/10
4	Myanmar	8.2/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.6/10
5	Libya	8.0/10	critical	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 8.6/10
6	Israel	7.9/10	critical	→	Arms Buildup: 9.3/10
7	Palestine	7.9/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.9/10
8	Afghanistan	7.8/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.6/10
9	Burkina Faso	7.8/10	critical	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
10	Iran	7.8/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 9.4/10
11	Mali	7.8/10	critical	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
12	Ukraine	7.7/10	critical	→	Arms Buildup: 10.0/10
13	South Sudan	7.6/10	critical	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
14	Pakistan	7.5/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.9/10
15	Somalia	7.5/10	critical	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.2/10
16	DR Congo	7.4/10	high	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.0/10
17	Nigeria	7.3/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
18	Central African Republic	7.2/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
19	Iraq	7.2/10	high	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 7.9/10
20	Lebanon	7.2/10	high	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.8/10
21	Chad	7.2/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
22	Cuba	7.1/10	high	↑	Active Conflict Intensity: 7.7/10
23	Niger	7.1/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
24	Russia	7.1/10	high	→	Arms Buildup: 8.7/10
25	North Korea	7.0/10	high	↑	Strategic Vulnerability: 8.4/10
26	Algeria	6.8/10	high	↑	Arms Buildup: 9.1/10
27	Republic of the Congo	6.7/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
28	Colombia	6.7/10	high	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 7.8/10
29	Ethiopia	6.7/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
30	Burundi	6.6/10	high	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 7.3/10

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See the full picture

This is one of five risk dimensions. Visit the Risk Dashboard to see all five dimensions together, or check the Country Risk Radar for individual country deep-dives.

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